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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don'tUPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012
UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.Binding Type: Paperback
Publisher: Penguin Books
Published: 02/03/2015
ISBN: 9780143125082
Pages: 576
Weight: 1.00lbs
Size: 8.30h x 5.40w x 1.10d
Review Citations: New York Times Book Review 03/01/2015 pg. 28
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Product Reviews
★★★★★ 4
Very cool and smooth
Color: Burgundy, Size: Standard (20'' x 26'')
Excellent quality but sold with the expectation of some shrinkage. Once I ran them through a med high dryer the fit was great. They live up to the idea that they are made for hot sleepers
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Reviewed in the United States on April 15, 2026
★★★★★ 5
Soft and durable
Color: Olive, Size: King (20'' x 36'')
Second set of these sheets I’ve purchased. One color for fall and winter and another for spring and summer- thick as a sail, soft as silk, cooling as a breeze. I only use bamboo sheets and these ones are better quality than other brands I’ve tried. 10/10
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Reviewed in the United States on March 16, 2026
★★★★★ 5
A huge bamboo fan approves!
Color: Dream Blue, Size: Queen (20'' x 30''), Color: Dream Blue, Size: Queen (20'' x 30'')
I switched to bamboo sheets a few years ago and will never go back. I needed more pillow cases and got these - great quality and price AND family owned is a big deal to me. Will definitely order more. Buttery soft and thicker than other brand I’ve been using.
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Reviewed in the United States on April 24, 2026
★★★★★ 1
Product is not as described
Color: Charcoal, Size: Queen (20'' x 30'')
Bought 6 of these because I believed the reviews and the product description.. I don’t think these are bamboo because they don’t stay cool. The appearance of them are great.. but that’s the only good quality and I can’t return them because I got rid of the boxes they came in. Won’t be buying anything else from this company
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Reviewed in the United States on May 10, 2026
★★★★★ 5
Finally sleeping through the night without waking up drenched
I was dealing with night sweats almost every night. Waking up overheated, flipping my pillow over constantly, just uncomfortable and restless. It was starting to mess with my sleep in a real way.
Since switching to this cooling pillowcase (and pairing it with a cooling blanket), it’s been a completely different experience. I’m actually staying cool through the night and not waking up soaked or irritated.
The fabric feels cool to the touch right away and doesn’t trap heat like a regular pillowcase. It’s smooth, comfortable, and still feels good after washing. Not stiff or weird like some “cooling” materials can be.
Is it magic? No. But does it noticeably reduce overheating and help you sleep better? Absolutely.
If you run hot at night or deal with night sweats, this is one of those small upgrades that makes a big difference. I wish I had bought it sooner.
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Reviewed in the United States on March 19, 2026
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