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Why Intelligence Fails

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Description

Why Intelligence FailsThe U. S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was

The U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002.

The Iran case is based on a recently declassified report Jervis was commissioned to undertake by CIA thirty years ago and includes memoranda written by CIA officials in response to Jervis's findings. The Iraq case, also grounded in a review of the intelligence community's performance, is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents, though Jervis's conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified.

In both cases, Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanations--analysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blind--were also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink, lack of coordination within the government, and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions, including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence, were supposed to remedy the situation.

In Jervis's estimation, neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose, he concludes, from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted, a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments, and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insider's perspective, Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved.



Binding Type: Paperback
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Published: 12/22/2011
ISBN: 9780801478062
Pages: 238
Weight: 0.85lbs
Size: 9.10h x 6.10w x 0.70d
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SKU: 55036512304

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Grant
Los Angeles, US
★★★★★ 1
Failed after 2 months
Failed after about 2 months of being used as a battery isolator. When activated, only passes about 2 volts though the contacts on a 12 volt circuit now. Wasted my time and money.
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Wes
Draper, US
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Works great
I used this to turn on with key on power in my truck. Power then goes through this and turns on my key on fuse panel. That way I can run a much larger cable from the battery to the fuse panel instead of pulling power through the ignition switch, where power output is limited. So far it doesn't get hot, though I am not running anything close to 500 amps through it. More like 75 amps max and even then it's only sometimes. No problems so far.
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Heavy duty and has lasted three years so far
I have had this relay installed in the engine bay of my Lexus RX 300, functioning to link the front battery to the additional battery in the trunk whenever the ignition is on. The relay has worked reliably for about three years now with no complaints besides one minor comment, be careful when threading down the nut on the Low voltage side. It is prone to stripping
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